2009—2020年合肥市肺结核空间特征分析

Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Hefei City, 2009-2020

目的:分析2009—2020年合肥市肺结核疫情特征及空间聚集性。方法:通过收集“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”的子系统“结核病管理信息系统”中合肥市2009—2020年肺结核数据,筛选出肺结核患者42681例,利用GeoDa和Arcgis 10.8空间分析软件进行分析,在街道/乡镇水平上绘制空间分布地图,探索空间分布规律及肺结核发病冷热点地区。结果:2009—2020年合肥市肺结核共报告42681例,报告发病率从2009年57.96/10万(4195/7237966)下降到2020年31.04/10万(2908/9369881),整体呈现波动下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=12.531,P<0.001);全局空间自相关结果显示2009—2014年合肥市肺结核发病呈现空间自相关性(Moran’s I值均>0,P值均<0.05);2015—2020年空间分布偏向随机性。局部自相关分析显示高-高聚集发病街道/乡镇主要集中在长丰县、肥东县;低-低聚集区主要集中在老城区(庐阳区、包河区)。冷热点分析发现,热点区域有2个,分布在长丰县义井乡和肥西县严店乡。结论:合肥市肺结核疫情存在一定的聚集性,后续应针对不同的县(区)街道/乡镇特点采取不同的防控措施,加大高-高聚集区的街道和热点区域的防控力度。

Objective:To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)cases in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020.Methods:The information of 42681 PTB patients who were recorded in The TB Management Information System(a sub-system of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System)in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020 was obtained.A case spatial distribution map of the street/township level was drawn with GeoDa and Arcgis 10.8 spatial analysis software,to explore the spatial distribution pattern and cold/hot spot areas of PTB.Results:A total of 42681 PTB cases were notified in Hefei City from 2009 to 2020,the incidence decreased from 57.96/100000(4195/7237966)in 2009 to 31.04/100000(2908/9369881)in 2020 and showed a fluctuating decreasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=12.531,P<0.001).The result of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial autocorrelation of PTB incidence in Hefei City from 2009 to 2014,the Moran’s I values were all greater than 0,P values were all<0.05.The spatial distribution from 2015 to 2020 trended to be random.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustered incidences were mainly concentrated in Changfeng County and Feidong County.Low-low clustered areas were mainly concentrated in the main urban areas(Luyang District,Baohe District).The analysis of cold/hot spot showed that there were two hot spots,which were distributed in Yijing township of Changfeng County and Yandian Township of Feixi County.Conclusion:The PTB epidemic in Hefei City has a certain degree of aggregation,so different prevention and control measures should be taken according to characteristics of different counties,districts,streets and towns,and the prevention and control efforts should be strengthened in the high-high clustered streets and hot spot areas.