双边政治关系改善能延长企业出口产品持续时间吗

Does the Improvement of Bilateral Political Relations Prolong the Export Products Duration of the Enterprises

文章基于2000~2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口统计数据库以及联合国大会投票数据,利用生存分析模型考察了双边政治关系对企业-HS8位数产品-目的国出口持续时间的影响。研究表明:(1)双边政治关系改善有助于降低企业出口风险,延长企业出口持续时间;(2)进一步分析发现,双边政治关系通过降低双边贸易成本进而延长企业出口产品持续时间;(3)双边政治关系对企业出口产品持续时间的影响因产品类型、企业所有权、企业贸易方式、是否为“一带一路”共建国以及目的国政治风险高低而异。研究论证了双边政治关系改善的经济合理性,评估了其对企业-HS8位数产品-目的国出口持续时间的实际影响,能够为中国的外交政策提供一定的实证参考。

Based on Chinese industrial enterprises database, China customs import and export statistics database and the voting data of General Assembly of the United Nations from 2000 to 2013, this paper applies the survival analysis model to investigate the impact of bilateral political relations on the export duration of the enterprises-HS8-digit products-destination countries. The research shows that:(1) the improvement of bilateral political relations helps to reduce the export risks of the enterprises and prolong the export duration of the enterprises;(2) further analysis reveals that bilateral political relations can prolong the export products duration of the enterprises by reducing the cost of bilateral trade;(3) the impact of bilateral political relations on the export products duration of the enterprises varies depending on product type, enterprise ownership, enterprise trade pattern, whether the countries are along the Belt and Road and the level of political risk in the destination country. This paper demonstrates the economic rationality of the improvement of bilateral political relations, and evaluates its actual impact on the export duration of the enterprises-HS8-digit products-destination countries, which can provide some empirical references for China’s foreign policy.