基于景观格局指数的天津市蓟州区耕地细碎化评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Cultivated Land Fragmentation Based on Landscape Pattern Index in Jizhou District of Tianjin City

[目的]评价与预测耕地细碎化程度,为缓解蓟州区耕地细碎化问题提供借鉴。[方法]采用评价指标体系构建、因子分析赋权等方式对2000—2020年耕地细碎化时空演变特征进行分析,基于CA-Markov模型得到的2025年土地利用数据,评价、预测未来耕地细碎化发展,并对多年耕地评价结果进行空间自相关分析,由此判断耕地细碎化水平空间分布特征。[结果](1)2000—2005年,耕地细碎化呈现出由南部平原向北部山地递增的态势;(2)2005—2020年,南部细碎化加深程度较北部更为明显;(3)2025年蓟州区18个乡镇耕地细碎化均有不同程度的缓解,但总体来看,北部耕地细碎化程度仍比南部严重;(4)2000—2025年蓟州南部乡镇耕地细碎化持续保持低—低集聚特征,偶有高—低型出现,蓟州北部于桥水库周边乡镇除2020年出现了低—高集聚特征外,其余年份呈现出高—高集聚的空间分布特征。[结论]天津市蓟州区耕地细碎化时空演变特征明显,其量化结果存在集聚性规律,应进行南北分治与重点引导。

[Objective] The effects of cultivated land fragmentation was evaluated and predicted in order to provide a useful reference to address the problem of cultivated land fragmentation in the Jizhou District of Tianjin City.[Methods] The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by means of evaluation index system construction and factor analysis weighting.The CA-Markov model was used to evaluate the predicted land use pattern in 2025 for cultivated land fragmentation,and to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis of the evaluation results in order to judge the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation level.[Results](1) Cultivated land fragmentation increased from 2000 to 2005 from the southern plain to the northern mountainous area.(2) From 2005 to 2020,the deepening degree of fragmentation in the south was more obvious than in the north.(3) Cultivated land fragmentation of 18 towns in the Jizhou District will decrease to varying degrees by 2025,but the degree of cultivated land fragmentation in the north will still be more severe than in the south.(4) Cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2025 in towns and villages in southwestern Jizhou will maintain the characteristics of low-low agglomeration,and occasionally the high-low agglomeration phenomenon will appear.Except for the characteristics of low-high agglomeration in 2020,the towns and villages around Yuqiao reservoir will show spatial distribution characteristics of high-high agglomeration in other years.[Conclusion] The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation were obvious,and the quantitative results of fragmentation were clustered.Based on the above analysis results,improvement measures for north-south division and key guidance recommendations are proposed.