中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴的耦合协调与影响因素

Coupling Coordination and Influencing Factors of Urbanization and Rural Revitalization in Nine Border Provinces of China

[目的]探讨中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴两大战略系统的协调发展关系与影响因素,为统筹边境地区城乡发展与促进国土安全提供科学依据。[方法]构建城镇化与乡村振兴的指标综合评价体系,采取耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型分析中国边境9省(区)2008—2018年两大系统的耦合协调关系及影响因素。[结果](1)2008—2018年中国边境地区城镇化指数呈波动上升态势,总体上土地城镇化高于人口城镇化。(2)乡村振兴整体指数由2008年的0.273上升至2018年的0.756,边境城乡统筹推进力度加大,省域乡村发展差距不断在缩小。(3)城镇化与乡村振兴的协调程度由中度协调向高度协调转变,按照两系统的协调程度情况将边境9省(区)划分为优化提升型、调整进步型与重点突破型。(4)中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴两大系统的协调发展是各种内外部力量交织作用下的结果,其中政府决策起到关键引导作用,互联互通扮演“催化剂”角色,产业结构提供重要内生“造血”力量,经济发展与人口迁移具有外部“输血”作用。[结论]应从建立健全城乡融合发展机制、分区分级分类制定发展战略、构建跨区域协同发展新格局和激活创新驱动内生发展动力等方面促进中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴协调发展。

[Objective] The coordinated development relationship and influencing factors of the two strategic systems of urbanization and rural revitalization in nine Chinese border provinces were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for coordinating urban and rural development in border areas and promoting homeland security.[Methods] A comprehensive evaluation system of indicators for urbanization and rural revitalization was constructed,and a coupled coordination degree model and a gray correlation degree model were used to analyze the coupled coordination relationship and influencing factors of two systems in the nine border provinces of China from 2008—2018.[Results](1) The urbanization index of China’s border areas from 2008—2018 showed a fluctuating upward trend,and overall land urbanization was higher than population urbanization.(2) The overall index of rural revitalization increased from 0.273 in 2008 to 0.756 in 2018.Urban-rural coordination in the border area was vigorously promoted,and the provincial-rural development gap has narrowed over time.(3) The degree of coordination between urbanization and rural revitalization had changed from moderate coordination to high coordination,and the nine border provinces were classified as either optimization and enhancement type,adjustment and progress type,or key breakthrough type according to the degree of coordination of the two systems.(4) The coordinated development of the two systems of urbanization and rural revitalization in the nine border provinces of China was the result of the intertwined and coupled effects of different internal and external forces.Governmental decisions played a key guiding role,interconnection played a “catalyst” role,industrial structure provided an important endogenous “blood-making” role.Government decisions played a key guiding role,connectivity played a “catalyst” role,industrial structure provided an important endogenous “blood” force,and economic development and population migration had an external “blood” role.[Conclusion] The coordinated development of urbanization and rural revitalization in the nine border provinces of China should be promoted by establishing a sound mechanism for urban-rural integration and development,formulating development strategies in terms of zoning and classification,building a new pattern of cross-regional collaborative development,and activating innovation-driven endogenous development momentum.