面向2030中国区域科技创新空间演化趋势探讨

Discussion on the Evolution Trend of China’s Regional Scientific and Technological Innovation Space for 2030

通过选取《中国区域科技创新评价报告》的综合科技创新水平指数及39项三级指标作为研究对象,采取“自下而上”的方式,对39项指标采用增速法进行滚动预测,并测算出31个省(区、市)2030年综合科技创新水平指数。结合中国区域发展战略演化、区域创新格局及区域科技力量空间布局等,对未来十年中国区域科技创新能力趋势演变进行研究。结果表明,至2030年,中国科技创新区域进一步集聚,北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区将成为具有全球影响力的科技创新高地;“一纵一横”两大创新带的廊道效应逐渐突显,成为区域创新集聚区;中国科技创新重心不断向南转移,区域间科技创新发展依旧不平衡,而城市群协同创新将成为区域科技创新的重要方式,科技创新发展逐步进入“超越行政区划”的新时代。

By selecting the comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level index and 39 three-level indicators as the research objects from the"China Regional Scientific and Technological Innovation Evaluation Report",and adopting the"bottom-up"method,the growth method is used to make rolling prediction for 39indicators,and the comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level index of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in 2030 is calculated.Combined with the evolution of China’s regional development strategy,regional innovation pattern and the spatial distribution of regional scientific and technological forces,this paper studies the evolution of China’s regional scientific and technological innovation capability in the next decade.The results show that by 2030,China’s scientific and technological innovation regions will further gather,and Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Bay area will become the scientific and technological innovation Highlands with global influence;The corridor effect of"one vertical and one horizontal"two innovation belts has gradually become prominent,becoming a regional innovation cluster;The focus of China’s scientific and technological innovation continues to shift to the south,and the development of regional scientific and technological innovation is still unbalanced.The collaborative innovation of urban agglomeration will become an important way of regional scientific and technological innovation,and the development of scientific and technological innovation has gradually entered a new era of"transcending administrative divisions".