自动驾驶影响下的出行行为研究综述

Review on impact of autonomous driving on travel behaviors

从小汽车出行总需求、出行方式选择、在途时间利用三方面梳理了自动驾驶影响下的出行行为研究现状,分析了用于研究自动驾驶对出行行为影响的数据基础与研究方法,总结了影响自动驾驶环境下出行方式选择的关键因素,指出了出行行为研究存在的问题和未来发展方向。研究结果表明:出行总需求的相关研究主要关注当前服务不足人口的潜在出行,大多通过需求假设分析潜在的变化,在假设的可靠性和结果的准确度方面还存在不足;出行方式选择的相关研究显示车辆服务和出行属性、社会人口和家庭属性、出行习惯属性、居住地和环境属性、个人心理和偏好属性等是影响出行方式选择的关键因素,考虑到不同的研究对象、场景设计与分析方法,性别、年龄、持有驾照、家庭结构等因素对出行行为的具体影响还有待进一步检验;人们对自动驾驶时代在途时间利用的方式和受益程度的认知存在较大的不确定性与异质性,亟需理论模型来进一步讨论潜在的时间利用变化;基于自动驾驶对出行行为影响相关研究的局限性,提出了建立自动驾驶汽车的规范化描述和丰富数据采集方式,开展横向与纵向对比研究,加强各影响因素异质性的考量,辨析自动驾驶时代各类出行行为间的相互影响机制的改进方向。

The research status of travel behaviors under the influence of autonomous driving was analyzed from three aspects: vehicle travel demand, travel mode choice, and travel time utilzation. The data foundations and methodologies of existing studies on the impact of autonomous driving on travel behaviors were analyzed. The key factors affecting the choice of travel mode in the autonomous driving environment, existing challenges, and future development directions were discussed. Research results indicate that the studies on vehicle travel demand estimation primarily focus on the potential travel of underserved population and usually analyze the potential demand changes through assumptions, which have some deficiencies in terms of the reliability of the assumptions and the accuracy of the results. The studies on travel mode choice show that vehicle service and travel attributes, social demographic and family attributes, travel habits attributes, residential and environmental attributes, personal psychology and preference attributes are key influencing factors. Taking into account of different research objects, scenario design, and analysis methods, the influence of the factors such as gender, age, vehicle license holding, and family structure on travel behaviors remains to be examined. There is great uncertainty and heterogeneity in people’s perceptions of the ways and benefits of the use of travel time in the era of autonomous driving, and there is a great need for theoretical models to further discuss the potential change of the use of travel time. Based on the limitations of existing studies on the impact of autonomous driving on travel behaviors, several future improvement directions are provided, including establishing standardized description of autonomous vehicles, enriching data collection methods, carrying out horizontal and longitudinal comparative studies, strengthening the consideration of the heterogeneity of influencing factors, and identifying the interaction mechanism among various travel behaviors. 3 tabs, 3 figs, 54 refs.