太原市降水变化特征分析及对农业生产的影响

Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics and Its Impact on Agricultural Production in Taiyuan City

为了寻找太原市降雨变化特征和变化周期,分析旱涝灾害的影响因素,为太原市的农业生产提供一定的理论参考。从中国气象数据网收集了太原市气象站近70年(1951—2020年)的最新降雨量,并采用线性趋势法和滑动平均法对多年降雨情况进行了年际分析,采用Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法确定多年的年际降雨量突变年份,采用小波分析法得出该地区降雨序列的多时间尺度变化。结果表明:太原市多年的年际降雨量变化呈上升和下降交替波动的变化趋势;多年的年际降雨量的突变年份为2016年,多年的年际降雨量变化幅度波动较大;主要存在时间尺度为40~46年、6~12年、2~5年的3个周期变化规律,在40~46年时间尺度的周期变化最为明显,能量最强;降雨量对太原市主要农作物的影响极大,应结合灌溉或采取一些措施以保证该地区农业的可持续发展。

In order to find the characteristics and changes of rainfall in Taiyuan City, the influencing factors of drought and flood disasters are analyzed, which provides a certain theoretical reference for agricultural production in Taiyuan City. The latest precipitation of taiyuan meteorological stations in the past 70 years(1951~2020)was collected from The China Meteorological Data Network. Linear trend method and the moving average method were used to analyze the annual precipitation situation, MannKendall method and the cumulative anomaly method were used to determine the annual precipitation abrupt change, and Wavelet analysis method was used to obtain the multitime scale variation of rainfall series in this area.The results showed that the annual rainfall in Taiyuan presents an alternating fluctuation trend of rising and falling. The mutation year of interannual rainfall was 2016, and the variation range of interannual rainfall fluctuated greatly. There were three periodic changes with time scales of 40~46years, 6~12 years and 2~5 years, and the periodic changes were most obvious and the energy was strongest in 40~46 years. Rainfall had a great influence on the main crops in Taiyuan, so we should combine irrigation or take some measures to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture in this area.