美国复兴制造业政策有效性及中国的应对策略

Effectiveness of U.S. Policy to Revive Manufacturing and China’s Response Strategy

构建一个由作用领域、干预层级、中介目标和战略意图4个维度构成的政策矩阵,并用这个矩阵分析美国制造业政策。基于此,利用特朗普政府制造业跨细分行业保护性政策出台时间差异,构造DID,并通过逐步引入交互项,检验其政策体系对制造业细分行业增加值的影响。研究发现:样本期内,保护性的市场激励政策和分配激励政策没有提升制造业细分行业增加值,或显著改变其变化速度;要素供给政策对制造业增加值的显著促进作用滞后半年,但未对其增速产生显著影响;政策之间存在不一致性或冲突,致使政策组合的影响不显著。中国应该汲取特朗普政府保护主义政策失灵的教训,按自身定力继续扩大开放和增强市场作用,促进政策协同并强化其实现使命任务的能力,在促进产业公地建设、提升在全球生产网络中的地位、积极应对贸易保护主义和跨国公司垄断、提高产业链和价值链粘性等方面形成协同互动的政策矩阵。

The paper constructs a policy matrix composed of four dimensions: action domain, intervention level, intermediary goals and policy strategy. Based on the novel framework, the paper disassembles and analyzes American manufacturing policies. Then, exploiting the cross-industry, cross-time variation in the time of the Trump administration’s protective market incentive policy for manufacturing industries, the paper adopts difference in difference method and the introduction of interactive terms to estimate the impact of its policy system on the added value of subdivision manufacturing industries. The results show that within the sample period, the protective market incentive policies and distribution incentive policies did not promote the increase of added value of manufacturing sub-industry or significantly changed its rate of change. The significant role of factor supply policies in promoting the added value of the industry lags half a year, but it has not had a significant impact on its growth rate. Inconsistencies or conflicts between policies made the impact of the policy mix insignificant. China should learn from the failure of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies, continue to expand opening up and enhance the role of the market according to its own determination, promote policy coordination and strengthen its ability to achieve its mission and tasks, and form a policy matrix of synergy and interaction in promoting the construction of industrial commons, enhancing its position in the global production network, actively responding to trade protectionism and multinational monopolies, and improving the stickiness of industrial chains and value chains.