提高教育水平是否有助于跨越中等收入陷阱——对不同收入水平国家的比较研究

Whether Improving the Level of Education Helps to Cross the Middle-Income Trap——A Comparative Study Based on Countries with Different Income Levels

将世界上153个国家(地区)按照收入水平和是否跨越中等收入陷阱两个维度进行分组,建立固定效应模型实证研究教育在跨越中等收入陷阱过程中所发挥的作用,为中国顺利跨越中等收入阶段提供理论与实证基础。此外,还使用无监督学习法对部分发达国家教育政策演变进行关键词提取,查找和分析发达国家历史上教育政策的演进及其与收入水平之间的关联性。研究发现:教育对收入的贡献在低收入和中低收入国家不显著,但是在中高收入组和高收入组显著;中高收入陷阱国家的教育贡献低于越过陷阱国家;发达国家的教育政策具有较强的计划性和前瞻性,且随着发展的不同阶段不断调整。得出结论:教育将对我国顺利跨越中等收入阶段发挥重要作用,同时教育政策也需要根据不同的发展阶段做出调整。在此基础上,提出相应的对策建议。

153 countries(regions) in the world are grouped according to the two dimensions of income level and whether having crossed the middle-income trap, and a fixed effect model is established to empirically study the role of education in the process of crossing the middle-income trap, so as to provide a theoretical and empirical basis for China to successfully cross the middle-income stage. In addition, this paper also uses unsupervised learning method to extract keywords from the evolution of education policy in some developed countries, and search and analyze the evolution of education policy in the history of developed countries, as well as its correlation with income level. The study found that the contribution of education to income is not significant in low-income and middle-low-income countries, but significant in middle-high-income and high-income groups;The education contribution of middle-high-income trap countries is lower than that of countries that have crossed the trap;The education policies of developed countries are highly planned and forward-looking, and they are constantly adjusted with the different stages of development. It is concluded that education will play an important role in China’s crossing the middle-income stage, and education policies also need to be adjusted according to different stages of development. On this basis, policy suggestions are put forward.