居住方式会影响死亡风险吗?——对丧偶高龄老人的追踪考察

Do Living Arrangements Affect Mortality of the Elderly?——A Longitudinal Analysis for Widowed Elderly in China

文章利用追踪期跨越20年的“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)追踪数据(1998—2018)”,通过生存分析、倾向得分匹配等多种方法来检验丧偶高龄老人的居住安排同自身死亡风险的关系。结果稳健地表明:没有证据显示独居或住养老院会提高丧偶高龄老人的死亡风险;丧偶高龄老人的死亡风险更多还是受到性别、出生队列、早期职业和健康状况等因素的调节。研究结果一定程度上澄清了以往一些文献得出的养老机构居住或独居使得老年人死亡风险更高的错误认识,免除了老年人对于个体选择居住方式可能影响自身死亡风险的恐惧,为充分尊重老年人自身的居住选择奠定了事实基础,为满足新时代养老和老年健康方面的现实需求问题提供了基本学理支撑,也对我国养老服务体系建设及构建老年友好型社会都有着现实的参考价值。

By using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)data from1998-2018 with a tracking of 20 years period,this research focus on analyzing the relationship between the living arrangements of the widowed elderly and their risk of mortality via survival analysis and propensity score matching.The results showed that,the living arrangements(whether living alone or in a nursing home)are less likely to increase the risk of mortality for widowed elderly,and it may due to that the mortality risk is more affected by other factors,such as gender,cohort,early years’career and health status.The results clarified the misunderstanding that“living alone or living in nursing home would increase the risk of elderly death”,it reduced the worries of the elderly about some individual choices might affect their mortality risk,and it laid the factual foundation to fully respect the elderly own living choice.Moreover,the results provide basic theoretical support to meet the new era of pension and elderly health needs,also,it is a practical reference for the development of Chinese pension institutions,pension service system construction and build elderly friendly society.