断裂与均衡:历史制度主义视角下的泰国政党制度变迁

Fracture and Equilibrium:a Study on the Change of Political Party System in Thailand from the Perspective of Historical Institutionalism

泰国政党制度的演变历程复杂且漫长,大体经历了三个阶段:1946至2001年是多党制建立阶段,2001至2006年是多党制向一党独大制转变阶段,2006年至今是一党独大制向两党制转变阶段。基于历史制度主义理论,从结构和历史的双重维度切入,能更好地厘清泰国政党制度演变的内在逻辑。一方面,社会经济和国际环境是泰国政党制度发展的宏观背景,这些外部环境的变化诱发了泰国旧政党制度的“供需不均”。受到这一非均衡状态刺激的政治行动者纷纷采取不同的政治策略和行动,并在权力博弈过程中实现政治权力结构的重组和政党制度的更替。因此,外部环境、旧制度和政治行动者三个变量之间的互动构成了泰国政党制度演变的动力机制。另一方面,在历史时间的视域里,路径依赖可以维持一段时期内的制度均衡,但关键节点的冲击则会造成制度断裂,随后受路径依赖强大惰性的影响,制度演化会再次进入新的均衡。因此,五次关键节点作用下的“制度断裂”和路径依赖维持下的“制度均衡”,通过循环往复的方式共同塑造了泰国政党制度的变化路径。复杂的变迁逻辑预示着泰国政党制度的演化前景充满未知,但依据路径依赖理论和现实实践仍可预测,泰国政党政治的未来发展将呈现出多元民主和庇护主义两大趋势。

The process of the change of Thailand’s political party system is complicated and long,which has gone through three stages:the establishment of multiparty system from 1946 to 2001,the transition from multi-party system to one-party system from 2001 to 2006,and the transition from one-party system to two-party system from 2006 to now.Based on the theory of historical institutionalism and from the dual dimensions of structure and history,we can better clarify the internal logic of the institutional changes of Thai political parties.On the one hand,social economy and international environment are the macro background of the development of Thailand’s political party system,and these changes in the external environment induced the "imbalance between supply and demand" of Thailand’s old political party system.The interaction between the external environment,the old system and the political actors constitutes the dynamic mechanism of the political party institutional change in Thailand.On the other hand,from the perspective of historical time,path dependence can maintain institutional equilibrium for a period of time,but the impact of key nodes will cause institutional rupture,and then the institutional evolution will enter a new equilibrium again under the influence of the strong inertia of path dependence.Therefore,the "institutional rupture" under the action of five key nodes and the "institutional equilibrium" maintained by path dependence jointly shape the change path of Thailand’s political party system through a cyclic way.The complex logic of change indicates that the future of Thailand’s political party system is full of uncertainties.However,according to the path-dependent theory and practical practice,it can be predicted that the future development of Thai party politics will present two major trends:pluralistic democracy and clientelism.