停车换乘设施饱和时刻逐日演化规律研究

Research on the Day-to-day Evolution of Saturation Time of Park-and-ride Facilities

停车换乘(P&R)设施能够引导郊区出行者换乘公共交通方式前往市区,由于土地资源等客观条件限制,P&R设施的停车位常处于供不应求的状态.利用非线性动力学理论研究停车位不足条件下的P&R设施饱和时刻逐日演化规律,推导得到平衡点存在且渐进稳定的条件.通过分析发现,停车供需比较高或出行者实际到达P&R时刻不确定性较低时,饱和时刻演化将趋于某一时刻,并渐进稳定;当停车供需比较低时,演化结果可能会出现分岔(周期震荡)、混沌、甚至永远不会饱和等现象;实际到达时刻的不确定性较高时,演化结果可能会出现分岔(周期震荡)现象,且振幅随不确定性增大.

Park-and-ride(P&R)facilities can guide suburban travelers to transfer to public transportation to the city.Due to the restriction of land resources and other objective conditions,the parking spaces of P&R facilities are often in short supply.Based on the nonlinear dynamics theory,the daily evolution law of saturation time of P&R facilities under the condition of insufficient parking spaces was studied,and the conditions for the existence and gradual stability of equilibrium point were deduced.The results show that when the parking supply and demand are relatively high or the uncertainty of the actual arrival time of travelers at P&R is low,the evolution of saturation time will tend to a certain time and gradually become stable.When the supply and demand of parking is relatively low,the evolution results may appear bifurcation(periodic oscillation),chaos,and even never saturation.When the uncertainty of the actual arrival time is high,the evolution result may appear bifurcation(periodic oscillation),and the amplitude increases with the uncertainty.