基于Logistic方法的河口逐时低盐取水可行性预测

FEASIBILITY PREDICTION OF HOURLY LOW SALT WATER INTAKE IN ESTUARY BASED ON LOGISTIC METHOD

针对河口地区咸潮上溯过程复杂,导致滨海水厂每日逐时取淡水时机难以把控的难题,采用Logistic方法,考虑历史盐度记忆效应,建立基于河口地区动力指标的逐时取水评估统计模型,实现了河口地区盐度<0.5‰(含氯度<250 mg/L)的逐时取水可行性预报。以珠江磨刀门河口为实例,模型预测结果准确率在90%以上,实现了次日逐时取水的可靠预报,为水厂及时准备取水和停止取水提供了有效的参考依据,该模型对于其他河口地区低盐度逐时取水的风险评估具有一定参考意义。

Given the complex process of salt tide upstream in the estuary area, and it’s difficult to control the timing of daily hourly freshwater intake by coastal water plants, a statistical model for hourly water intake evaluation based on the dynamic index of the estuary area was established by using the Logistic method and considering the historical salinity memory effect, to realize the hourly water intake prediction of waterbodies with less than 0.5‰ salinity in the estuary area. Taking the Modaomen estuary of the Pearl River as an example, the accuracy of the prediction results of the model was found higher than 90%, which realized the reliable prediction of hourly water intake the next day, and provided an effective reference basis for the water plants to prepare and stop water intake in time. The model had a certain reference significance for the risk assessment of hourly water intake with low salinity in other estuaries.