中国“双循环”的测度及其新发展格局模式——基于全球投入产出(ICIO)表调整缩并的分析

Measure of Chinese Double Cycle and Study on New Development Pattern Mode——Based on Analysis of Adjusted Global Input-Output(ICIO)Tables

从经济循环的视角厘清国内国际双循环,基于供给和需求面构建双循环测度框架,由全球投入产出(ICIO)表调整缩并为中国与其他国家(或地区)非竞争性投入产出表,将中国国内生产总值进行分解,对1995—2018年国内国际双循环进行测度,并由测度双循环结构分析新发展格局下的双创新模式。由测算结果可知:1995—2018年,国内循环对GDP的贡献率呈现“U”型曲线;国际循环对GDP的贡献率呈现倒“U”型曲线。研究表明:在数量上,国内循环的主体地位基本确立,但国内循环立足于技术创新的高质量发展动力模式有待实现;国际循环虽然充分利用全球资源配置和全球价值链,但原有的利用外资等增长方式转换为以技术创新为主的高质量发展动力机制也有待实现。提出建立国内国际双循环相互促进良性的双创新模式,从而实现中国新的发展格局。

From the perspective of economic cycle to clarify domestic and international double cycle,based on supply and demand to build double cycle measurement framework,we use the adjusted global input-output(ICIO)tables and build China and other countries(or regions)non-competitive input-output table to decompose Chinese domestic GDP.We measure Chinese domestic and international double cycle from 1995 to 2018,and analyze China′s new development pattern and double innovation mode.The calculation results are as follows:The contribution rate of domestic circulating GDP has showed a"U"curve from 1995 to 2018.The contribution rate of international circular GDP has showed an inverted"U"curve between 1995 and 2018.It can be seen from the contribution rate of double cycle GDP from 1995 to 2018 that the main position of domestic cycle in quantity is basically established,but the construction of a new development pattern,domestic cycle based on the domestic high-quality development power model of technological innovation needs to be realized.At the same time,it is also necessary to make full use of the international circular global resource allocation and global value chain,and realize the transformation from the original growth mode of utilizing foreign investment to a high-quality development driving mechanism based on technological innovation.We will establish a benign double innovation mode of domestic and international double circulation so as to realize a new development pattern in China.