基于VSD模型的丰水山区水资源脆弱性分析——以湘西土家族苗族自治州为例

Using VSD Model to Analyze Water Resource Vulnerability in Wet Mountain Region:Taking Xiangxi Tujiazu&Miaozu Autonomous Prefecture as an Example

【目的】构建南方丰水山区水资源脆弱性评价模型及厘清其演变规律。【方法】以湘西州水资源系统为研究案例,基于VSD框架构建3个维度(暴露度、敏感性和适应能力)15个指标的评价指标体系,采用投影寻踪法和综合云模型构建评价模型,开展2011—2018年湘西州水资源脆弱性评价。【结果】2011—2018年,湘西州水资源脆弱性指标根据发展趋势可分为4种类型,其中长期较好类指标包括农业用水量、工业用水量、居民用水量、水功能区水质达标率;稳步提升类指标包括生态环境用水量、森林覆盖率、大中型水库蓄水量、污水回收处理率、堤防长度;逐步下降或未有提升类指标包括接待旅游总收入、有效灌溉面积;波动较大类指标包括产水系数、人均水资源量、年降水量、地下供水量。湘西州水资源脆弱性综合评价整体呈中度脆弱向弱脆弱发展的趋势。【结论】湘西州水资源系统提升与该州注重水生态文明、河长制建设有关,但是,仍须科学合理发展生态旅游和水利基础设施建设。此外,本文构建模型适用于南方丰水山区水资源脆弱性评价。

【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evolution of water resource vulnerability in the southern wet mountain regions in China.【Method】We took Xiangxi Tujiazu&Miaozu Autonomous Prefecture as an example,and developed a VSD model to calculate their water resource vulnerability evaluation index by considering exposure,sensitivity and adaptation.It included three hierarchies and 15 indicators.The evaluation model was developed based on the projection pursuit-cloud model.【Result】The trend of water resources vulnerability in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture can be divided into four categories including good category,category in continuous improvement,continuously worsening category,and category in fluctuation.The good category includes water consumptions by agriculture,industry,domestic use and water quality compliance rate;the continuous improvement category includes eco-environmental water demand,forest coverage rate,water storage of large and medium-sized reservoirs,sewage recovery rate,and length of embankments;continuously worsening category includes tourism revenue,effective irrigation area;the fluctuation category includes water yield coefficient,water resources per capita,annual rainfall,and groundwater water exploitation.The comprehensive evaluation changed from moderate vulnerability to weak vulnerability since the work for aquatic ecological civilization,the system for the river-leader and model river have been carried out.【Conclusion】The enhancement of the water resources system in Xiangxi Prefecture is related to its eco-civilization of water,river chief system,but it should also develop ecological tourism and water infrastructure construction.The method we developed in this paper can be used to evaluate and analyze water resource vulnerability in the other wet mountainous regions.