农产品进口种类、质量与贸易福利——中国自“一带一路”沿线国家的进口分析

Import Variety, Quality and Trade Welfare of Agricultural Products——An Analysis on China’s Imports from the Belt and Road Countries

增进消费者福利是一国经济发展的最终目的,进口增长的福利评估和来源渠道的挖掘一直是经济学界研究的热点。本文基于2001—2019年中国HS6位数农产品进口数据,通过构建经质量变化的精确和价格指数,考察中国从“一带一路”沿线国家农产品进口增长中,种类增加和质量提高对增进消费者福利的作用。研究结果显示,忽略种类、数量和质量的变化会引致价格指数向上偏误,数量变动、种类增加和质量提高,使消费者获得的福利分别为2019年农业GDP的0.096 8%、0.113 2%和6.886 7%。质量提高带来的贸易福利最大,种类增长导致的贸易福利次之,数量变化促进的贸易福利较少。因此,扩大从“一带一路”沿线国家农产品进口中,不仅要实施种类多样化和进口市场多元化战略,更要促进农产品进口质量的提升,充分发挥农产品进口改善国内消费者福利的政策功能。

Improving consumer welfare is the ultimate goal of a country’s economic development, and the welfare evaluation of import growth and the excavation of source channels have always been the focus of economic research.Based on the HS6-digit agricultural product import data of China from 2001 to 2019,adopted the calculation method of Benkovskis and Woerz, this paper calculates the influence of the variety growth, quantity change and quality upgrade on consumer welfare in the increase of agricultural product import from countries along the “Belt and Road”.The results show that ignored the changes in variety, quantity and quality led to the upward bias of the import price index, and the improvements of product variety, quantity, and quality make consumers get benefits respectively by 0.096 8%,0.113 2% and 6.886 7% of agricultural GDP in 2019.The quality upgrade brings the greatest trade gains, the variety growth brings the second greatest trade gains, and the quantity change brings the less trade gains.Therefore, expanded the import of agricultural products from countries along the “Belt and Road”,it need not only further implement the strategy of import market diversification and variety diversification, but also promote the improvement of import quality of agricultural products, and give full play to the policy function of agricultural import to improve the welfare of domestic consumers.