风险态度对居民陷入相对贫困的影响及机制研究——基于机会获取的中介效应与政府转移支付的调节效应

Research on the Impact and Mechanism of Risk Attitude on Residents Falling into Relative Poverty——Based on the Mediating Effect of Opportunities Acquisition and the Regulatory Effect of Government Transfer Payment

缓解相对贫困是促进共同富裕的必然要求。因主观风险厌恶造成的客观机会缺失成为当前相对贫困治理中的重点和难点,因此需要从风险态度和机会获取两方面探索缓解相对贫困的有效机制。本文基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)7 243个居民调查数据,通过实验经济学方法测度居民风险态度,并构建结构方程模型以分析风险态度与相对贫困间的影响机理。在此基础上,进一步检验了获取发展机会的中介效应及政府转移支付的调节效应。研究结果表明:居民的风险态度对其陷入相对贫困开始有显著正向影响,并能通过获取发展机会的“中介效应”缓解相对贫困,且城市居民的中介效应强于农村居民;政府转移支付在风险态度影响居民获取机会的关系中具有正向调节作用,政府转移支付虽然提升了风险偏好者对机会的获取能力,但也会降低风险厌恶者对机会的获取能力,使其产生“福利依赖”。

It is necessary to alleviate relative poverty in order to promote common prosperity.Currently, deficiency in objective opportunities caused by subjective risk aversion has become the core difficulty in the governance of relative poverty.Therefore, it is necessary to explore effective mechanisms for alleviating relative poverty in terms of risk attitudes and opportunities acquisition.Based on the surveydata of 7 243 households China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS) in 2018,the risk attitude of residents was measured by experimental economics method, and a structural equation model was constructed to analyze the impact mechanism between risk attitude and relative poverty.And on this basis, the intermediary effect of opportunity acquisition and the regulatory effect of government transfer payment were examined.The research results show that the risk attitude of residents indirectly affect the relative poverty status of residents.However, after controlling for endogenous effects, the risk attitude of residents has a significant positive impact on their falling into relative poverty.Besides, the full mediation that development opportunities acquisition plays an important role in poverty alleviation.Furthermore, the intermediary effect of urban residents is stronger than that of rural residents.Government transfer payment has a positive moderating role in the relationship between risk attitudes and residents’ development opportunities acquisition.Although government transfer payment improves the ability of risk preference people to acquire opportunities, it also reduces accessibility of risk averse people to opportunities, such as“welfare dependence”.