模态信念如何得到辩护?

How to Justify a Modal Belief?

模态命题作为相信的对象构成模态信念。模态信念在什么意义上是合理的?这是模态信念的辩护问题。若可能性模态命题作为信念对象能够得到辩护,那么,其他模态命题因能够通过可能性命题得到定义也能够得到辩护。但以往诉诸可设想性的策略难以成为模态信念辩护的可行策略。对可能性命题辩护的一个恰当策略应当是:构造一个可能世界,在这个可能世界中有一个因果链,待辩护的命题对应的事件作为因果链的结果,而它的发生是由于因果链上的原因端的某个或某些可能事件。一个成功的辩护便是对这个因果链的辩护以及对因果链上的原因端的辩护。

The objects of modal beliefs are modal propositions. In what sense are modal beliefs reasonable? This is the justification of modal beliefs. If the possible propositions can be justified as objects of modal beliefs, then other modal propositions, which can be defined through the possible propositions, can also be justified. However, the previous strategy of appealing to conceivability is difficult to become an effective justification strategy of modal beliefs, while an appropriate one should be to construct a possible world in which there is a causal chain, and the event corresponding to the proposition that needs to be justified is the result of the causal chain, and it occurs due to one or some possible events which are the causes of the causal chain. A successful justification is a justification of the causal chain and the causes.