住房土地使用权续期收费与房价:基于实验经济学的分析

Renewal Fees of Residential Land-use Rights and Housing Prices:Based on the Analysis of Experimental Economics

采用实验经济学方法研究住房土地使用权续期收费对房价的影响。基于14局有效实验,主要判断如下:第一,资产价格泡沫稳健出现;第二,多数情形下资产价格在续期收费节点附近转而下降且下降的原因是续期收费,而非缓慢累积的折旧所导致的基本面价值(简写为FV)下降。在此基础上,估算了续期收费对房价的定量影响--若按资产的10%当期基本面价值收费,房价增速下降约一个百分点。房价的这一温和反应可为政策制定提供参考;政府应合理平衡续期收费和房价,加快土地财政的结构性调整,在高房价现实下的政策制定中应注意稳定居民对土地房屋财产长久受保护的预期。

This paper uses the method of experimental economics to study the impact of housing land-use right renewal fees over housing prices. Based on 14 valid treatments, the main judgments are as follows. First, asset price bubbles appear steadily. Second, in most cases, asset prices turn down around the renewal fee node and fall because of renewal fees, not the decline in fundamental value(FV) caused by slowly accumulating depreciation. On this basis, the quantitative impact of the renewal fee on housing prices is estimated. If 10% of the current fundamental value of the asset is charged, the growth rate of housing prices will drop by about one percentage point. This modest response in housing prices can provide references for policymaking. The government should reasonably balance renewal fees and housing prices, speed up the structural adjustment of land finance, and pay attention to stabilizing residents’ expectations of long-term protection of land and housing properties in policy formulation and practice under the reality of high housing prices.