基于风集合预报的扇区概率拥堵预测

Probabilistic Sector Congestion Prediction Based on Ensemble Wind Forecasts

提出了考虑风不确定性的扇区概率拥堵预测方法。首先研究了考虑风预报不确定性的集合轨迹预测方法以及航班过点时间预测不确定性的分析方法,采用基于集合预报的集合轨迹预测方法获得预测轨迹的集合,根据轨迹集合对所预测的过点时间的不确定性进行了统计分析并以预报时间提前量、扇区进入点以及飞行距离为解释变量,建立航班过点时间极差的回归预测方程;然后研究了扇区概率拥堵预测方法,在轨迹预测集合的基础上获得交通需求预测集合,并进而计算扇区拥堵概率和扇区预期容量缺失值。针对我国典型繁忙扇区采用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF),集合预报数据以及我国历史飞行计划数据进行了实例计算。计算结果验证了预测方法的有效性,基于预测方法得到扇区概率拥堵,有利于提高空中交通流量管理(ATFM)策略的有效性,减少管制员的工作负荷。

A probabilistic method for sector congestion prediction taking into account wind uncertainty is presented. Firstly, the ensemble trajectory prediction method subject to the uncertainty of wind forecast and the analysis method of the uncertainty of flight time prediction are studied. The ensemble trajectory prediction method based on weather ensemble forecasts is used to obtain the set of predicted trajectory. According to the trajectory set, the uncertainty of the look-ahead time is statistically analyzed, and the regression prediction equation of the flight elapsed time spread is established with the look-ahead time, sector entry point and flight time as explanatory variables. Then the sector probabilistic congestion prediction method is studied to obtain the traffic demand prediction set based on the trajectory prediction set and then calculate the sector congestion probability and the expected capacity missing value of the sector. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ensemble forecast data and historical flight plan data for typical busy sectors in China. The probabilistic congestion prediction based on the proposed method is beneficial to improve the effectiveness of Air Traffic Flow Management(ATFM) strategy and reduce the workload of controllers.