基于云模型的战时海上运输风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Maritime Transportation in Wartime Based on Cloud Model

针对战时环境下海上运输过程存在的风险问题,提出了基于云模型的风险评估方法。在分析风险影响因素的基础上构建了战时海上运输风险评价指标体系,采用AHP和熵权法分别对指标进行主、客观赋权,并基于博弈论原理计算组合权重。针对战时环境的模糊性与不确定性,采用区间指标对运输风险进行评价,基于综合云理论融合评价结果,最终根据综合云图判断运输风险等级。实例分析表明,该方法可行有效,可为海上运输风险评估提供一种新途径。

In view of the risk problems existing in the sea transportation process in wartime environment,a risk assessment method based on cloud model is proposed.Based on the analysis of risk influencing factors,the risk assessment index system of wartime maritime transportation is constructed.AHP and entropy weight method are used to respectively weight the indexes subjectively and objectively,and the combination weight is calculated based on the principle of game theory.In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty of the wartime environment,the interval index is used to assess the transportation risk.Based on the comprehensive cloud theory,the assessment results are fused,and finally the transportation risk level is judged according to the comprehensive cloud map.The example analysis shows that the method is feasible and effective,and it can provide a new way for maritime transportation risk assessment.