低碳技术效率、技术差距与低碳化水平演变——基于生产部门异质性的对比与预测

Low-Carbon Efficiency,Technology Gap and the Evolution of Low-Carbon Level——Comparison and Prediction Based on the Heterogeneity of Production Departments

本文基于2002年、2007年和2012年历史期以及动态CGE模型模拟的2017年、2022年和2027年预测期的投入和产出数据,利用MinDS距离函数和Luenberger生产率指数,对28个生产部门的低碳效率、低碳全要素生产率(LTFP)、技术差距和低碳化水平进行测度和比较。研究发现:第一,历史期低碳效率得分均值为0.857,预测期该指标显著上升,碳排放过多是无效率的主因;历史期LTFP指数平均下降3.7%,预测期该指数降幅略有增加,技术进步乏力是LTFP指数降低的主因。第二,预测期,制造业部门群组的低碳效率增幅最多,该群组LTFP指数降幅最小。第三,历史期,其他部门群组有技术追赶效应;预测期,制造业部门群组的技术追赶效应显著。第四,碳减排政策显著推动大多数部门的低碳化进程。第五,与行政型碳减排情景相比,碳交易情景更有利于LTFP指数提升。未来,生产部门应进一步加强生产技术和管理效率提升,推进碳减排政策由行政型向市场型政策转变。

Based on historical periods in 2002,2007 and 2012 as well as input and output data of predictive periods simulated by the dynamic CGE model in 2017,2022 and 2027,the MinDS distance function and the Luenberger productivity index were used to measure and compare with the low-carbon efficiency,the low-carbon total factor productivity(LTFP),the technical distance and the low-carbon level in 28 production departments.The findings indicated that first of all,the average low-carbon efficiency score in the historical period was 0.857.The index in the predictive period was increased significantly.Excessive carbon emissions were the main cause of inefficiency.LTFP index in the historical fell by an average of 3.7%.The decline in the LTFP index will increased slightly during the predictive period.The insufficient technical progress was the primary cause for reducing LTFP index.Secondly,the low-carbon efficiency of manufacturing sectors in the predictive period saw the largest increase,while the LTFP index of manufacturing sectors saw the smallest drop.Besides,in the historical period,other sectors had the technological catch-up effect.In the predictive period,this effect of manufacturing sectors was significantly increased.Moreover,carbon emission reduction policies played a significant role in low carbon technological progress in most departments.What is more,compared with the administrative carbon reduction scenarios,the carbon trading policy scenario was favourable for the improvement of LTFP index.In the future,production departments should further reinforce productive technology and management efficiency,and transform carbon emission reduction policies from administrative ones to market ones.