基于CAS理论的雄安新区既有社区韧性评估与提升策略研究

Research on the Resilience Assessment and Improvement Strategy of Existing Communities in Xiong’an New Area Based on CAS Theory

在雄安新区从农村到现代化城市的快速转变中,既有社区韧性水平将直接关系到城市公共安全建设。基于复杂适应系统理论,构建既有社区韧性资源结构模型与韧性评估体系,借助德尔菲法与层次分析法确定各类指标权重,并选取雄安7个既有社区进行实证研究。结果表明:既有社区的韧性建设须以韧性资源与网络为主导,并与外部协调保障体系相结合;防灾应急韧性、社区成员韧性、社会网络韧性、基础设施韧性对韧性水平的重要程度逐次降低;雄安既有社区在社会网络韧性上表现较好,防灾应急韧性上具有差异,社区成员韧性、基础设施韧性方面则存在明显短板。据此,从健全成员资源与防灾应急体系、完善设施服务与社会网络体系、构建智慧监测与韧性体检机制3个方面提出建议。

In the rapid transformation of Xiong’an New Area from a rural area to a modern urban,the resilience level of existing communities will directly affect the urban public safety construction. According to the CAS theory,a community resilience resource structure model and resilience assessment framework are constructed for Xiong’an existing communities,and with the help of the Delphi and AHP methods the weights of various indicators are calculated. Based on this,seven existing communities are selected for the empirical research,and the results show that: the improvement of the Xiong’an existing communities resilience must base on the construction of community resilience resources and networks,and combine with an external coordination guarantee system further;the importance of resilience level in descending order is disaster prevention and emergency response resilience,community member resilience,social network resilience,and infrastructure resilience. The seven existing communities performed well in social network resilience,but with certain differences in disaster prevention and emergency resilience. They also had obvious shortcomings in community member resilience and infrastructure resilience. So,three suggestions are provided further in this article: perfecting the community’s member resources and disaster prevention and emergency response system,improving community’s facility services and social network system,and constructing a community’s smart monitoring and resilience evaluation mechanism.