突发疫情环境下的应急预算分配优化模型研究

Optimization Model for Allocating Emergency Budget under the Environment of Epidemic Outbreak

针对突发疫情环境下应急预算分配与疫情传播扩散之间的交互作用问题,本文构建了一类创新的决策框架模型。在该决策框架中,既考虑了不同感染区域之间人口流动对疫情扩散行为的影响,又融合了应急预算受限条件下隔离病房数量有限并由此导致的患者入院治疗率变化等关键因素。在此基础上,借鉴背包问题的建模思想,构建了政府应急预算资金分配的混合整数非线性规划模型并进行了模型线性化转换。算例测试表明,突发疫情环境下政府的应急预算应该向人口流入区域进行适当政策倾斜,且应急预算资金和起始干预时间都存在较明显的阈值效应。超过阈值后,即使增加应急预算,对疫情控制作用并不明显。

To depict the interaction effect between emergency resource allocation and epidemic spread,an innovative decision-making framework model is constructed in this paper.The new decision-making framework not only considers the influence of population mitigation among different infected areas,but also integrates the key factors such as the limited number of isolation wards under the condition of limited emergency budget and together with a time-varying patient admission rate.Based on the idea of knapsack problem,a mixed integer non-linear programming model for allocating the limited emergency budget is proposed.The model is then linearized and thus it can be solved directly.The test results demonstrate that emergency budget should be inclined to population inflow areas.More than that,there are threshold effects in both emergency budget and initial intervention time.After the threshold is exceeded,even a higher emergency budget does not work for epidemic controlling.