合肥市农业生产碳排放脱钩分析及峰值预测

Decoupling Analysis and Peak Value Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production in Hefei

在对2006—2019年合肥市农业碳排放时序与组成变化分析的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩弹性模型分析合肥市农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的相关性,基于EKC模型原理结合岭回归等统计方法进行相关关系分析,并运用Python3软件拟合三次函数对合肥市农业碳排放进行科学预测。结果表明:农业碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,且谷物种植产生的碳排放量占比最大;农业碳排放量与经济发展之间主要有弱脱钩、扩张连续、强负脱钩与强脱钩四种类型,其中主要以弱脱钩为主,且现阶段有向强脱钩发展的趋势;未来10年,合肥市农业碳排放量将逐年下降。总体表明,合肥市低碳农业发展良好,并有进一步扩大的趋势。

Based on the analysis of the time series and composition changes of agricultural carbon emissions in Hefei from 2006 to 2019,this study uses the Tapio decoupling elastic model to analyze the correlation between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Hefei.The correlation analysis is carried out by application of EKC model principle combined with ridge regression and other statistical methods,and Python3 software is used to fit the cubic function to scientifically predict agricultural carbon emissions in Hefei.The results show that the agricultural carbon emissions show an overall upward trend,and the carbon emissions from grain cultivation account for the largest proportion.There are four types of relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development,namely weak decoupling,continuous expansion,strong negative decoupling and strong decoupling,among which weak decoupling is the main type,while there is a trend towards strong decoupling at this stage.In the next 10 years,agricultural carbon emissions in Hefei will decrease year by year.Overall,low-carbon agriculture in Hefei is developing well and shows a trend of further expansion.