市场下沉背景下农村电商发展的消费效应研究

The Consumption Effects of Rural E-commerce Development under the Market Sinking Background

本文基于2013-2019年全国25个省市面板数据构建中介效应模型,考察农村电商发展的消费效应及其传导机制。研究发现:(1)总体上,农村电商发展显著提高了农村居民消费水平,其中,对居住、交通通信、教育文化娱乐、生活用品及服务与医疗保健消费的影响较大,对食品烟酒、衣着消费的影响较小;(2)从影响机制来看,农村电商发展主要通过“畅通农产品上行渠道—促进农村居民增收”这一中介渠道来刺激农村居民消费,而“畅通工业品下行渠道”这一直接渠道发挥的作用较小。本文的研究结论为新发展格局下扩大内需识别到一条新路径——注重下沉市场,大力发展农村电子商务,促进农村居民增收,释放农村地区消费潜力。

Based on the panel data of 25 provinces in China from 2013 to 2019, the paper constructs the intermediary effect model to examine the transmission mechanism of the rural e-commerce development. The empiricalresultsshowthat:(1) Asa whole, the development of rural e-commerce significantly promotes the rural residents’ consumption level. The impact on housing, transportation, communication, education, culture and entertainment, daily necessities and services and health care consumption is big, and the impact on food and clothing is small;(2) From the perspective of the influencemechanism, the development of rural e-commerce mainly stimulates rural residents’ consumption through the intermediary channel of "opening up the upstream channel of agricultural products-promoting the increase of rural residents’ income”, while the direct channel of "opening the down channel of industrial products" plays a smaller role. The conclusion of this paper offers a new channel to release the consumption potential on the background of a "dual circulation" development pattern--focusing on the sinking market, developing rural e-commerce, increasing rural residents’ income, releasing the consumption potential of rural areas.