特朗普政府“退群”行为的原因分析

ANALYSIS FOR TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S WITHDRAWAL DOCTRINE

文章在简化施韦勒新古典现实主义框架的基础上,选取了制度地位优势、政治精英共识、社会共识三大变量,通过特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》案例,分析特朗普政府大规模“退群”的原因。特朗普政府大规模退出国际组织或条约是体系刺激和国内政治因素强化动机的共同结果。美国在该类国际制度中不具有显著制度地位优势构成了特朗普政府退出的体系侧诱因;共和党政治精英和选民的“退群”共识构成了强化特朗普退出动机的两大支柱。但特朗普政府“退群”的过程,是一个“体系刺激—国内政治因素强化—政策结果—反馈体系刺激”的过程,从威胁退出到正式退出的过程正是政策结果反馈体系刺激的过程。

This article attempts to explore the reasons for Trump Administration’s Withdrawal Doctrine.Based on the theoretical framework of Schewell’s neo-classical realism,we chose the advantage of institutional status,political elite consensus and social cohesion as variables,and Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to develop case study,analyzing the reasons for Trump Administration’s Withdrawal Doctrine.It is argued that the inducement of Withdrawal Doctrine is first stimulated by systematic factors then strengthened by domestic politics.The systematic stimulus is that the U.S.does not have the advantage of institutional status;the consensus of the Republican political elite and voters constitutes the two pillars that strengthen Trump’s motivation for withdrawal.The process of the Trump Administration’s“withdrawal”is also a process of“system stimulus-strengthening of domestic political factors-policy results-feedback system stimulus”.The process from threatening withdrawal to formal withdrawal is exactly the process of stimulating the policy result feedback system.