三门峡红富士苹果始花期预测模型研究

Sanmenxia Red Fuji Apple:Prediction Model of the First Flowering Date

为了提高三门峡红富士苹果始花期预测水平和花期冻害防御能力,本研究分析了气象因子与苹果始花期之间的关系,依据不同数据组合,利用回归法建立了4种始花期预测模型。结果表明:3月中旬平均气温、下旬平均气温、3月平均气温、≥0℃积温、≥3℃活动积温和有效积温、≥5℃活动积温和有效积温与始花期呈明显的负相关;<0℃积温与始花期呈明显正相关。降水量、日照时数与始花期之间相关性差。通过模型检验,基于≥3℃活动积温和<0℃积温模型作为最优始花期预测模型。该模型可为当地苹果花节气象服务及指导花期冻害防御提供科学依据。

In order to improve the prediction level of the first flowering date of Red Fuji apple in Sanmenxia and enhance the variety’s tolerance to freezing injury during flowering period,the relationship between meteorological factors and the first flowering date was analyzed in this study.According to different data combinations,four prediction models of the first flowering date were established by regression method.The results showed that the average temperature in mid-March,the average temperature in late March,the average temperature in March,the≥0℃accumulated temperature,the≥3℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature,the≥5℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature were significantly and negatively correlated with the first flowering date.The<0℃accumulated temperature was positively correlated with the first flowering date.The first flowering date had poor correlation with precipitation and sunshine duration.By verification,the model based on the≥3℃active accumulated temperature and the<0℃accumulated temperature was the optimal one for predicting the first flowering date.The model can provide meteorological service for local Apple Blossom Festival and guidance on preventing the freezing injury during flowering period.