基于Bow-tie模型的危险化学品道路运输泄漏事故风险管理

Managing Risks of Hazardous Chemical Leakage in Road Accidents Based on Bow-tie Model

针对危险化学品道路运输泄漏事故,运用蝴蝶结模型(Bow-tie,BT)提出从事故预防到事故后果控制的风险管理体系,同时针对Bow-tie模型不能量化风险的特点,将故障树-贝叶斯网络(FT-BN模型)与Bow-tie模型相结合,展开此类系统性分析。首先统计分析了2016年5月至2021年5月我国发生的180起危险化学品道路运输泄漏事故,初步辨析出事故原因-泄漏-事故后果的事故因果链;其次构建故障树-贝叶斯网络,进行Bow-tie模型的事故原因分析,确定人员因素和车辆因素为关键风险因素;接着完成Bow-tie模型的事故后果分析;最后提出针对关键风险因素和关键事故后果的安全屏障,并将统计数据代入Bow-tie模型,验证了安全屏障的有效性,得出提升车辆通讯类规范协议的市场普及度和广泛应用基于信息交互技术的安全监管平台可有效预防事故的结论。

In this paper, we used the Bow-tie(BT) model to build the risk management system against hazardous chemical leakage accidents in road transportation from the link of accident prevention to accident consequence control, and at the meantime, in light of the inability of the BT model in risk quantification, combined it with the fault-tree/Bayesian network(FT-BN) model for more systematic analysis. Firstly, we looked statistically at 180 hazardous chemical leakage accidents in road transportation in China happening between May2016 and May 2021, and identified the preliminary chain of the cause, leakage situation, and consequence of the accidents. Next, we constructed the fault tree-Bayesian network model of the accidents, and analyzed the cause of the accidents using the Bow-tie model, during which we isolated the human factor and vehicle factor as the key risk factors. Finally, we put forward the safety screen against the key risk factors and key accident consequences, fed the statistical data into the Bow-tie model to verify the effectiveness of the safety screen, and concluded that improving the market popularity of the vehicle communication standards and protocols and the extensive application of the safety supervision platform based on information interaction technology could effectively prevent the occurrence of the accidents studied in this paper.