塔利班掌权后阿富汗与上海合作组织的关系及其前景

Afghanistan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization:Relations and Prospects after the Taliban’s Return to Power

从“9·11”事件爆发到美国完全撤军的二十年间,上海合作组织与阿富汗的关系实现了从无到有、从初步接触到深入合作的发展。随着塔利班重新掌权,上合组织与阿富汗关系发生重大变化,兼具确定性与不确定性。其中,确定性主要来自上合组织成员国就阿富汗问题表达的共同立场和主张,以及塔利班基于自身利益诉求释放的积极政策信号;不确定性则主要在于,塔利班构建广泛包容政治架构、与恐怖和极端主义势力彻底割裂并予以有效打击、落实温和稳健对内政策并有效治理国家的能力与意愿存疑。鉴于此,上合组织与阿富汗关系的前景尚不明朗。上合组织与阿富汗关系的未来走向,主要取决于塔利班能否达到外界的共同期望、获得广泛的国际承认,同时也会受到上合组织成员国在阿富汗问题上的利益侧重异质性的影响。考虑到阿富汗变局关乎周边地区和平与发展全局,上合组织有必要实现与阿富汗关系正常化,将阿富汗问题纳入基本安全功能,继续推动阿富汗和平重建与发展。

In the past two decades from 9/11 to the complete withdrawal of US troops,the relationship between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)and Afghanistan has steadily progressed from initial contact to in-depth cooperation.After the Taliban returned to power,the SCO-Afghanistan relationship has undergone major changes,featuring both certainties and uncertainties.The certainties mainly come from the common positions and propositions expressed by SCO member states on the Afghanistan issue,and the positive policy signals sent by the Taliban based on its own interests.The uncertainties mainly result from the Taliban’s doubius ability and willingness to build a broad and inclusive political structure,make a complete break with terrorist and extremist forces whom they should effectively combat,and effectively govern their country through moderate and prudent domestic policies.In view of this,the future of the SCO-Afghanistan relationship is unclear.The future direction of this relationship mainly depends on whether the Taliban could meet the common expectations of the outside world and gain wide international recognition,and on whether the interests of the SCO member states converge on the Afghanistan issue.Since changes in Afghanistan are closely related to the overall peace and development in the region,it is necessary for the SCO to normalize relations with Afghanistan,incorporate the Afghanistan issue into its regular agenda,and continue to promote the peaceful reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.