影子银行业务与分析师盈余预测乐观度

Shadow Banking Business and Optimism of Analyst Earnings Forecasts

利用标准普尔的Compustat Global企业数据库提供的2008—2017年我国非金融上市企业样本,研究非金融企业的影子银行业务与分析师盈余预测乐观度的关系。结果发现:非金融企业的影子银行业务规模越大,分析师盈余预测乐观度越高,且该结论在解决内生性问题、进行稳健性测试后依然成立;上述关系在机构持股比例低、内部控制质量低、两权分离度高和股价同步性低的企业中更显著。作用机制检验结果表明,非金融企业的影子银行业务会增加企业的应计盈余管理、提高公司业绩的波动性,进而增强分析师发布乐观盈余预测的动机。研究结论对于加强市场监管、提高分析师预测质量、提升资本市场效率具有重要的启发意义。

Using the samples of China’s listed non-financial enterprises from 2008 to 2017 provided by Standard&Poor’s Compustat Global enterprise database,this paper studies the relationship between shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises and optimism of analyst earnings forecasts.The study has found that the larger the shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises,the higher the optimism degree.And this conclusion is still valid after solving endogenous problems and conducting the robustness test.The above positive correlation is more significant in enterprises with low institutional shareholding ratio,low quality of internal control,high degree of separation between the two rights and low stock price synchronization.The results of the mechanism test show that enterprises engaged in shadow banking business have more accrued earnings management and more volatility in corporate performance,which enhance the motivation of analysts to issue optimistic earnings forecasts.The conclusion of the paper has important enlightening significance for strengthening market supervision,improving the quality of analysts’forecast and the efficiency of capital market.