新冠疫情对旅游景区客源市场需求的空间分异影响——以南京夫子庙景区为例

Spatially Divergent Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Source Markets of Tourism Destination:A Case Study of the Confucius Temple in Nanjing

以南京市夫子庙景区为例,分析其国内309个地级及以上客源城市受重大公共卫生事件的冲击影响,构建损失指数,量化评估疫情对客源地需求的影响强度及空间差异,并通过双变量空间自相关方法探索需求受损差异的驱动因素。研究发现:①疫后客源市场空间集聚特征及近程化趋势更加明显,客源需求受损程度在空间上分异明显,中远程客源地在疫情冲击下表现出更高的脆弱性;②疫情对客源市场规模的影响大于市场空间格局,疫情前后客源市场空间格局演化具有较强一致性及正向空间整合性,局部区域结构稳定性高;③各客源城市疫情严重程度与损失指数之间无空间关联性;引力模型优化的经济联系强度指标与损失指数在空间上存在较明显负相关性,局部空间关联模式以低−高集聚为主,且以南京为中心250 km范围内的近程客源地及900 km范围内的中程客源地的各项空间关联特征存在明显分异。更加精细化的量化评估可为目的地针对不同客源市场制定恢复策略提供指导。

COVID-19 pandemic has substantially impacted the domestic tourist source market demand in tour-ism destinations.Exploring the spatially differentiated characteristics and mechanisms of these impacts can provide insights into destination resilience's theoretical and practical implications.The study takes the Con-fucius Temple scenic area in Nanjing as the research case and analyzes the impact on its 309 domestic tourist source cities(at prefecture-level and above)under the major public health events.The study uses methods such as Geographic Concentration Index,Attractive Radius Index,and exploratory time-space data analysis to ex-plore the spatio-temporal change in the tourist source market after the pandemic.We construct the Loss Index to quantitatively evaluate the impact,spatial difference,and the pattern of the pandemic on tourist source mar-ket demand with the bivariate spatial autocorrelation method.The results show that:1)after the pandemic,the spatial clustering characteristics of the source market and the trend of proximity travel are more obvious;the degree of damage to the source demand is differentiated in space;the source market for medium-and long-dis-tance tourist source market shows higher vulnerability.2)The impact of the pandemic on the scale of the tour-ist source market is greater than the spatial pattern;the evolution of the spatial pattern of the tourist market in pre-and post-pandemic has strong consistency and positive spatial integration,with a stable local structure and a low probability of spatial-time transition.3)There are obvious differences in spatial correlation characterist-ics between short-haul sources within 250 km and medium-haul sources within 900 km.This paper provides a more refined quantitative assessment of the extent of damage and its spatial differentiation across tourist source markets in the aftermath of the pandemic.This study further enriches the theoretical research results on the im-pact of crisis events on the source markets of neighborhood-based scenic destinations.Also,it guides destina-tions in developing recovery strategies for different source markets.