阿富汗大变局及其地区影响分析

An Analysis of the Great Change in Afghanistan and its Regional Impact

2021年8月15日,塔利班进入喀布尔,加尼政府垮台,阿富汗局势发生根本性转变;同年9月7日,塔利班宣布组建新政府。与此同时,除“伊斯兰国”频繁发动恐袭公开挑衅塔利班外,反塔联盟对塔利班的抵抗仍在小范围内持续,随着时间的推移,阿富汗严重的经济危机可能引发大规模人道主义危机。当前塔利班尚不具备完全掌控阿富汗全局的能力,阿局势发展存在诸多不确定性。若短期内阿富汗局势难以好转,其境内恐怖主义、毒品、难民等问题的大规模外溢将直接危及该地区安全与稳定。同时,在美国撤离阿富汗后,主要利益攸关方围绕阿富汗问题展开了新一轮博弈,这对中亚南亚地缘政治格局产生深远影响,给我国“一带一路”建设的顺利实施带来新挑战。

On August 15,2021,the Taliban entered Kabul,the Ghani government collapsed,and the situation in Afghanistan underwent a fundamental change.On September 7,the Taliban announced the formation of a new government as well as its basic structure and a list of officials,revealing its extremely conservative character.At the same time,in addition to the“Islamic State”frequently launching terrorist attacks to openly provoke the Taliban,the anti-Taliban coalition’s resistance to the Taliban continues on a small scale.Over time,the severe economic crisis in Afghanistan may trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis.At present,the Taliban do not have the ability to fully control the overall situation of Afghanistan,and there are many uncertainties in the development of the situation in Afghanistan.If the situation in Afghanistan is difficult to improve in the short term,the large-scale spillover of terrorism,drugs and refugees in Afghanistan will directly endanger the security and stability of the region.At the same time,after the U.S.withdrew from Afghanistan,major stakeholders launched a new round of games on the Afghan issue,which had a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape of Central and South Asia and brought new challenges to the smooth implementation of China’s“the Belt and Road”initiative.