阿富汗塔利班重夺政权的原因与执政走向

On the Reasons for Afghan Taliban Regaining Power and the Trend after Takeover

2021年8月塔利班重夺政权,与其强生命力、强战斗力、强应变力和强目标感有一定的关系。塔利班蚕食外围,不断扰袭,耗尽了美军的投入和耐心;升级作战系统,提升作战能力,扩大兵力,士气高涨;调整战术,灵活应变,与美国能打也能谈,对外塑造正面的形象;坚持复国,最终使美国退让,达成了协议。接管喀布尔后,塔利班继续“以承诺换援助”,积极展开外交,但承诺未完全兑现,也未放弃教义治国,第二次的执政走向值得关注。

The Taliban’s recapture of power in August 2021 is the result of its strong vitality,strong combat effectiveness,strong resilience and strong sense of purpose.The Taliban’s expansion in the periphery and constant attacks exhaust the U.S.devotion and patience;it upgrades the combat system,improves the combat capability,expands its troop and maintains a high morale;it adjusts flexible tactics,manages to engage in both war and dialogue with the U.S.,and builds a positive image abroad;it insists on national restoration,forcing the U.S.to compromise and to reach agreement finally.After its takeover of Kabul,the Taliban continues with its vigorous diplomatic efforts including the“aid in exchange for promises”,but the promises are not completely fulfilled and the Taliban has not abandoned its attempts to establish a theocratic state.Therefore its second term of taking office is noteworthy.