乡村科技人才集聚、农业科技创新与农业经济发展:耦合协调及时空演化——基于河南省面板数据的实证分析

Gathering of Rural Technology Talents,Innovation of Agricultural Technology and Development of Agricultural Economy:Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Evolution——Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Henan Province

乡村科技人才集聚、农业科技创新和农业经济发展三个系统的耦合协调对于促进乡村全面振兴具有重要意义。通过构建耦合协调发展评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度评价模型,实证测算了河南省18个省辖市的综合发展指数、耦合指数和协调指数,同时分析了耦合协调度的时空演化与动态变迁趋势。研究表明:(1)2008—2018年,河南省不同区域综合发展指数总体上呈现上升趋势,但内部结构表现出“阶梯化”差异的空间格局,不同区域之间的极化差异现象逐渐减弱。(2)虽然出现短暂震荡,但河南省不同区域耦合指数的动态演变趋势较为一致,大致呈现缓慢上升状态,而且三系统之间高度耦合,相互影响程度较深,正向互动作用较强。但三系统之间耦合状态并不稳定,特别是下游区域耦合指数的震荡状态尤为明显,而且低值耦合指数区域分布较多。(3)河南上、中、下游区域及全省的协调指数均呈现显著上升态势,整体向着良性协调方向发展。从地理空间来看,上游、中游区域协调状态较好,全部处于中级协调以上,协调指数在不同区域之间的极化差异现象逐渐减弱,但协调指数“北高南低”的态势逐渐显现。

The coupling and coordination of rural technology talents aggregation,agricultural technology innovation and agricultural economic development is of great significance to promote the overall revitalization of rural areas.By constructing the evaluation index system of coupling coordination development and using the evaluation model of coupling coordination degree,this paper empirically calculates the comprehensive development index,coupling index and coordination index of 18 cities under the jurisdiction of Henan Province,and analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution and dynamic change trend of coupling coordination degree.The results show that:1)From 2008 to 2018,the comprehensive development index of different regions in Henan Province shows an overall upward trend,but the internal structure shows a spatial pattern of“ladder”differences,and the polarization differences between different regions gradually weaken;2)Although there is a short-term shock,the dynamic evolution trend of coupling index in different regions of Henan Province is relatively consistent,roughly showing a slow rising state,and the three systems are highly coupled,have a deep degree of interaction,and have a strong positive interaction.However,the coupling state among the three systems is not stable,especially in the downstream region where the coupling index fluctuates obviously,and there are many low-value coupling index regions;3)The coordination index of the upper,middle and lower reaches of Henan Province and the whole province showed a significant upward trend,and the overall development was in the direction of benign coordination.From the perspective of geographical space,the coordination status of the upper and middle reaches is good,and all of them are above the intermediate coordination level.The polarization difference of coordination index between different regions is gradually weakening,but the situation of coordination index“high in the north and low in the South”is gradually emerging.