美国对华拒止性威慑战略论析

An Analysis of the U.S.Strategy of Deterrence-by-Denial against China

拒止性威慑的思想源远流长,作为一种军事战略的拒止性威慑具有广泛性、实时性和受挑战性三个主要特点。拒止性威慑的思路相比惩罚性威慑更具操作性,在信息化战争时代也更具优势。美国战略学界认为,在西太平洋地区中美实力日渐接近的情况下,对华拒止性威慑战略是较优选项。美国对华拒止性威慑战略兴于特朗普政府时期,其主要特点是加强军事系统弹性能力建设与发展新战区导弹防御体系。拜登政府则在“一体化威慑”框架下应用对华拒止性威慑,发展深度防御能力。美国对拒止性威慑战略的理解与应用已经突破了传统意义上偏重防御的拒止性威慑模式。该战略的目标是联合盟友阻止中国在西太平洋地区的快速军事行动,维持和巩固在该地区的军事主导权。虽然美国对华拒止性威慑战略的实践受到了诸多内外因素制约,但其给中美带来的负面影响仍在不断加深,并对地区安全构成巨大挑战。中国需要主动培塑有利于军力发展的良好环境,发展新技术装备,应对美国对华拒止性威慑战略实践造成的军事胁迫,降低各类战略风险。

The thoughts of deterrence by denial could date back a very long time.As a military strategy,deterrence by denial is well known for its broad,real time and challengeable nature.Deterrence by denial is more operational than punitive deterrence,which gives it more advantages in the age of information warfare.The U.S.strategic community believes that the strategy of deterrence-by-denial against China is an optimal option when the gap between the two countries is narrowing.The U.S.strategy of deterrence-by-denial against China was developed and flourished during the Trump administration,mainly featured by strengthening the flexibility of the U.S.military system and developing a new theater missile defense system.The Biden administration has applied the strategy of deterrence-by-denial against China under the framework of“integrated deterrence”and developed defense-in-depth capabilities.The U.S.understanding and application of the strategy of deterrence-by-denial have gone beyond the traditional defense-oriented model of deterrence-by-denial.This strategy aims to pull together U.S allies to stop China’s fast military operations in the Western Pacific region and help the U.S.gain regional military dominance.Although the practice of the U.S.strategy of deterrence-by-denial against China has been constrained by many internal and external factors,its negative impact on both sides is deepening and thus poses a grave challenge to regional security.China should proactively cultivate a favorable environment conducive to increasing its military strength and develop new technical equipment so as to grapple with the military coercion caused by the U.S.strategy of deterrence-by-denial against China as well as reduce various real or potential strategic risks.