中国极地冰盖数值模拟研究进展

Progress in numerical simulation of polar ice sheets in China

冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。

Numerical simulation of ice sheets is a method to understand the physical mechanism of ice flow movement,diagnose and predict its evolution by constructing and solving the dynamic equations of ice flow based on multi-source observation data. Numerical simulation has been widely used in the study of ice sheet change. In this review,we briefly introduce the numerical simulation methods of polar ice sheets,summarize the research progress of Chinese scholars in polar ice sheets numerical simulation in the last decade,and identify the bottlenecks and key problems encountered in the field of ice sheet numerical simulation in China. We expound how to combine the advantageous areas of polar ice sheet scientific research in China,cooperate with multi-source enhanced observation and numerical simulation,develop and improve the ice sheet model,enhance the ice sheet simulation ability,and contribute to the quantitative estimation of polar ice sheets mass balance and its impact on future sea level rise. By gradually developing the research ability of ice sheet model,it is expected to make a breakthrough in the scientific understanding of key dynamic processes and mechanisms of ice sheets in the future.