中国西北山区融雪径流模拟研究回顾与展望

Review on snowmelt runoff simulation in mountain regions,Northwest China

融雪径流是西北地区宝贵的水资源。过去几十年,西北山区融雪径流模拟研究广泛开展,在积雪消融过程观测和模拟、驱动数据空间分布与融雪径流模型应用、分布式融雪径流模型改进和发展方面都开展了比较深入的研究,取得了较好的成果。插值算法、遥感反演和数据同化技术的发展,为分布式融雪径流模型在西北山区的广泛应用提供了数据支撑。气候变暖和经济社会的发展将进一步加剧西北干旱区水资源供需矛盾,对融雪径流模拟的精度和时空分辨率提出了更高的要求。综合西北山区融雪径流模拟研究的已有进展和面临挑战,提出未来西北山区融雪径流模拟研究需要在积雪积累和消融过程的机理探究、积雪时空分布变化监测和高精度积雪分布数据获取、气候变化对流域融雪径流影响量化方面开展深入研究。

Snowmelt runoff is a valuable water resource in Northwest China. In the past few decades,progress has been achieved in snowmelt runoff simulation in mountainous areas,including observation and simulation of snow melt process,improvement and development of distributed snow melt runoff model,and ability for application of snow melt runoff model with temporal and spatial distribution driving data. The development of interpolation algorithm,remote sensing and data assimilation technology provides data support for the widespread application of distributed snowmelt runoff model in northwest mountainous regions of China. Climate warming and economic and social development will further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the arid regions of Northwest China,which requires higher precision and detail spatial and temporal resolution of snowmelt runoff simulation. Based on the progress and challenges on snowmelt runoff simulation in mountainous regions of Northwest China,following studies need more attention:the mechanism of snow accumulation and ablation,snow cover spatial and temporal distribution monitoring and high precision of snow distribution data acquisition,quantitative climate change impact on river basin snowmelt runoff.