荆州市2005-2021年<10岁儿童乙型肝炎发病趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析

Hepatitis B incidence trends among<10-year-old children of Jingzhou city from 2005 to 2021,analyzed with an age-period-cohort(APC)model

目的分析2005-2021年荆州市儿童乙型肝炎(乙肝)发病趋势。方法通过中国传染病监测系统收集2005-2021年荆州市<10岁儿童乙肝发病率数据,采用年龄-时期-队列(Age period-cohort,APC)模型分析乙肝发病率随年龄、时期和出生队列效应的变化。结果2005-2021年荆州市<10岁儿童乙肝年均报告发病率7.82/10万(827例)(2005年vs 2021年:25.86/10万vs 1.08/10万;0岁vs 9岁:5.99/10万vs 21.28/10万;2005-2007年出生队列vs 2017-2019年出生队列:13.03/10万vs 0.90/10万)。APC模型分析显示,在调整时期和年龄效应后,乙肝发病率随出生年份推移而降低(χ^(2)=83.31,P=0.000),高峰出现在1996年(RR=48.12,95%CI:21.84-106.04),低谷出现在2021年(RR=0.04,95%CI:0.00-19.54)。结论荆州市<10岁儿童乙肝发病率具有显著的年龄-时期-队列效应,显示儿童乙肝疫苗接种的显著效果。

Objective To explore trends in hepatitis B incidence among children of Jingzhou city during 2005-2021.Methods We obtained hepatitis B reports of cases of<10-year-old children in Jingzhou during 2005-2021 from the China Infectious Disease Surveillance System.We used an age-period-cohort(APC)model to analyze changes in incidence of hepatitis B by age,period,and birth cohort.Results The average annual reported incidence of hepatitis B was 7.82 per 100000 population(827 cases)among<10-year-old children of Jingzhou during 2005-2021(in 2005 vs 2021:25.86 vs 1.08;among 0-year-olds vs 9-year-olds:5.99 vs 21.28;among 2005-2007 birth cohorts vs 2017-2019 birth cohorts:13.03 vs 0.90).APC analysis showed that the incidence of hepatitis B decreased with increasing birth year(χ^(2)=83.31,P=0.000)after adjusting for period and age.Incidence was highest in 1996(RR=48.12,95%CI:21.84-106.04)and lowest in 2021(RR=0.04,95%CI:0.00-19.54).Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis B among<10-year-old children of Jingzhou showed a significant age-period-cohort effect,indicating significant effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccination of children.