银行信贷、融资成本与企业的进出口边际

Bank credit, financing cost and margins of firm’s import and export

在政策层面和现实层面,我国的进口和出口都在经历重大的历史变化。我国的外贸政策经历了从“奖出限入”到“优进优出”,再到“推进贸易高质量发展”的变化。在推动贸易高质量发展的过程中,融资环境是重要的影响因素之一。从金融角度推动贸易高质量发展,需要回答以下问题:在不同的历史时期,企业获得银行贷款是否均可以促进贸易活动,贷款成本会对进出口产生怎样的影响,在外商投资企业和非外商投资企业之间,这种影响会有哪些差异。文章以世界银行2005年投资环境调查报告和2012年企业调查报告为基础,考察了银行信贷影响我国企业出口和中间投入品进口的历史变化,同时还考察了在不同所有制性质的企业中这种变化的差异性。研究发现:整体上,银行信贷对进出口的扩展边际和集约边际的正向影响呈现不断增强的特征。在扩展边际上,抵押贷款和无抵押贷款对出口参与的正向影响显著增强;在出口的集约边际上,抵押贷款和无抵押贷款对直接出口金额的影响没有发生显著变化,但是抵押贷款显著提高了直接出口比重;2003年抵押贷款可以显著提高企业使用进口中间品的比重,2011年转变为无抵押贷款发挥这种作用。全样本的检验结果更多地反映了银行信贷对非外商投资企业的影响。积极影响突出表现在,低成本贷款取代高成本贷款,在促进非外商投资企业参与进出口和提高中间投入品进口比重中发挥显著的正向作用,为国际贸易从注重价格到注重质量的转变提供了支持。不利影响主要表现在较高的贷款成本促使非外商投资企业减少国内市场供给,在提高出口比重的同时出口金额未发生显著增长。这意味着,在较高的还贷压力下,贷款企业被制约在为缓解融资约束而出口、出口模式难以升级的困境中。我国应继续推进银行改革,改善融资环境,切实降低本土企业的融资成本。一方面可以改变企业为缓解融资约束而进行的低质量出口,纠正过度的出口导向,促使企业重视国内市场;另一方面可以促进更高质量的中间投入品进口,带动企业生产率和产品质量提升,促进贸易高质量发展。

In policy and reality, China’s imports and exports are undergoing great historical changes. China’s foreign trade policy has experienced changes from “rewarding export and limiting import” to “high-quality import and export ” and then to “promoting high-quality development of foreign trade”. In promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade, the financing environment is one of the important influencing factors. From a financial point of view, we need to know, in different historical periods, whether bank loans can promote foreign trade, how loan costs affect import and export and what are the different impacts on foreign-invested enterprises and non-foreign-invested enterprises? Based on the World Bank Investment Climate Survey in 2005 and Enterprise Survey in 2012, this paper examines the historical changes of bank credit affecting the export and the import of intermediate inputs of Chinese enterprises, and also examines the differences of these changes among enterprises with different ownership natures. It is found that, on the whole, the positive influence of bank credit on the extensive margin and intensive margin of import and export is increasing. On the extensive margin, the positive impact of collateral loans and unsecured loans on export participation is significantly enhanced. On the intensive margin of export, the impact of collateral loans and unsecured loans on direct exports value has not changed significantly, but collateral loans have significantly increased the proportion of direct exports. In 2003, collateral loans significantly increased the proportion of imported intermediate inputs used by enterprises, and in 2011, unsecured loans played this role. The test results of the whole sample more reflect the impact of bank credit on non-foreign-invested enterprises. The positive impact is highlighted in that low-cost loans replace high-cost loans to promote the export and import participation and increase the proportion of imported intermediate inputs. This supports the transformation of international trade from focusing on price to focusing on quality. The adverse effects are mainly manifested in the fact that the higher loan cost urges non-foreign-invested enterprises to reduce the supply in the domestic market. Their export value has not increased significantly while the proportion of exports has not. This means that under the high pressure of repaying loans, enterprises are restricted in the dilemma of exporting in order to alleviate financing constraints, and the export mode is difficult to upgrade. China should continue to promote banking reform, improve the financing environment, and effectively reduce the financing costs of local enterprises. On the one hand, it can change the low-quality export of enterprises to alleviate financing constraints, correct excessive export orientation, and urge enterprises to serve the domestic market;On the other hand, it can promote the import of higher-quality intermediate inputs, improve productivity and product quality, and promote the high-quality development of foreign trade.