激励与保健:影响中国区域生育率水平的路径研究

Motivation and Hygiene:A Research on the Path Influencing Regional Fertility Levels in China

随着中国各地区生育率水平的逐渐下降,从区域状况切入,探讨各省(区、市)生育率水平差异的机理具有重要的现实意义。受赫兹伯格双因素理论的启发,有关生育率水平影响路径的分析可以从激励与保健两个视角展开,采用模糊定性比较分析法(fs-QCA)则有助于识别不同前因条件产生的耦合性作用。研究发现,生育成本是影响生育率的主要因素,良好的社会保障体系能够促进区域生育率水平的提高。当前中国逐步显现出的低生育率问题实质上是主要社会矛盾在人口和生育方面的体现,除了直接的生育成本外,机会成本在居民生育决策中发挥了关键作用。因此,解决当前中国面临的生育率问题,必须着力缓解当前面临的主要社会矛盾,提升居民收入水平,从而降低由经济发展所导致的生育成本上升的负面影响。同时着力解决收入分配问题,完善社会保障体系,积极引导形成良好的社会生育氛围。在国家统一规划的前提下,制定具体的生育引导政策,因地制宜地完善各地区政策。

With the gradual decline of fertility levels in various regions of China,it is of great practical significance to explore a mechanism of fertility level differences among provinces and regions from the perspective of regional conditions.Inspired by Herzberg’s two-factor theory,an analysis of the path influencing fertility levels can be carried out from the dual perspective of“motivation”and“hygiene”while the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative analysis(fs-QCA)is adopted to help identify the coupling effect of different antecedents.As you can see from this research,low fertility cost is still the main soil of high fertility rate and a good social security system can promote the improvement of a regional fertility level.The problem of low fertility gradually emerging in China is essentially an exposure of major social contradictions in terms of population and fertility.In addition to direct fertility cost,opportunity cost plays a key role in residents’childbearing decisions.Hence,to solve the fertility problem facing China,we must always grasp and solve the fundamental social contradictions facing China and improve the income level of residents so as to make up for the negative impact of rising birth cost caused by economic development.At the same time,we should strive to solve the problem of income distribution,build an adequate and sound social security system and actively guide the social fertility atmosphere.When formulating specific fertility guidance policies,we must improve regional policies according to local conditions on the premise of ensuring unified national planning.