限购政策对杭州新建商品住宅价格的影响--基于断点回归的经验研究

A study on the impacts of purchase restriction policy on Hangzhou housing prices: Based on regression discontinuity analysis

断点回归(regression discontinuity,RD)是检验因果关系的有效方法,近年来,其在宏观政策评价中的应用越来越广泛。2016年G20峰会召开、货币政策调整等利好导致杭州房地产市场过快增长,杭州市政府于同年9月重启限购政策,并于2017年3月加大限购力度,限购范围扩大至杭州市户籍居民家庭。从实证角度研究了限购政策对新建住宅价格的影响。结果表明,限购政策均对新建商品住宅价格产生了具统计学意义的显著负向影响,2次降幅分别为400.26元和4 082.2元。回归模型通过了有效性检验,且在不同的阶数、核函数、带宽下具有稳健性,说明杭州市住房限购政策的实施在短期内对投资性购房需求起到了一定的抑制作用。

In recent years, the regression discontinuity(RD) method has been used more and more widely in macro policy evaluation, and it is considered to be one of the effective methods to test causality. In 2016, faced with the overheated growth of the real estate market brought about by the G20 summit and monetary policy adjustments, the Hangzhou Municipal Government restarted the purchase restriction in September and strengthened its efforts in March2017 by extending the restriction to local households. This article studies the impact of the two round of purchase restrictions on the market price of newly-built commercial housing from an empirical point of view. It shows that the purchase restriction measures have a statistically significant negative effect on the price of newly built houses, and the two respective declines were respectively 400.26 yuan and 4 082.2 yuan. At the same time, the model has passed the validity test and is robust under different polynomial orders, kernel functions, and bandwidths, indicating that the implementation of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou has at least restrained the demand for speculative and investment property purchases in the short term.