基于动态相对集中指数的长三角港城关系

Analysis of port-city relationships in the Yangtze River Delta based on dynamic relative concentration index

为了定量分析长三角地区港城关系及其变化规律,以货物吞吐量和城市GDP为衡量指标,运用动态相对集中指数对长三角地区港城关系进行研究。结果表明:1)长三角地区14个港口城市的港城关系可以分为港口驱动型、港城协同型和城市驱动型,演化趋势可以分为上升型、下降型以及波动型。2)长三角地区总体上港口发展较为成熟,近15年港城关系由港口驱动发展向港城协同发展转变,城市发展相对更加活跃。3)连云港的港口活跃程度持续下降。长江深水航道、内河航运等外部因素给镇江、泰州、嘉兴等港口带来新的发展机会。上海、南京等城市驱动型港城关系中港口的活跃因素减少、城市增长效应远大于港口。

To quantitatively analyze the relationship between ports and cities in the Yangtze River Delta and its changing laws,this study takes cargo throughput and urban GDP as measurement indicators and investigates the relationship with the dynamic relative concentration index.The results reveal that 1)the port-city relationships of the 14 port cities in the Yangtze River Delta can be divided into port-driven,port-city coordinated,and city-driven ones,and the changing trends can be categorized as rising,falling,and fluctuating.2)The development of ports in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively mature in general.In the past 15 years,the port-city relationship has changed from port-driven development to port-city coordinated development,and urban development is relatively more active.3)The port activity of Lianyungang continues to decline.External factors such as the deep-water channel of the Yangtze River and inland water shipping have brought new development opportunities to ports such as Zhenjiang,Taizhou,and Jiaxing.In the port-city relationships driven by cities such as Shanghai and Nanjing,the active factors of the ports are reduced,and the urban growth effect is far greater than that of the ports.