第19届亚运会帆船赛区风场特征及其强风概率推算

Characteristics of Wind Field and Calculation of Strong Wind Probability During the 19th Asian Sailing Race

基于宁波象山石浦国家气象站19742019年和南韭山自动监测站20062019年9月的风向、风速资料,采用统计学、相关比值法、极值I型分布函数和风速廓线指数律等方法,研究了第19届亚运会帆船赛区风场特征及其强风概率。结果表明,帆船赛区9月主导风向为NE,午后至傍晚期间风速条件最佳且风向稳定,有利于比赛。石浦站和南韭山站9月风速通过相关性检验,两者距地面10 m高度风速样本比值关系V_(南韭山站)/V_(石浦站)约为1.1199,赛区距海面10 m高度出现帆船比赛中断风速(大于20 m/s)的概率约为0.071~0.077(13~14年1遇)。

Based on wind speed and direction data from Xiangshan Shipu Station from 1974 to 2019 and Nanjiushan Station from 2006 to 2019 in September, this paper studies the characteristics of the wind field and calculation of strong wind probability during the 19 th Asian Sailing Race by statistical?method, correlation ratio method, distribution function of Extreme-Ⅰ, wind velocity profile exponent and other methods. The main results are the following. The leading wind direction of the sailing area in September is NE. Depending on the optimal wind speed and stable wind direction, the period from noon to nightfall is more favorable for the sailing race. Through correlation test, the 10 m wind speed ratio of Shipu station and Nanjiushan station is about 1.1199. Moreover, the probability of interruption of sailing race by strong winds(>20 m/s) at 10 m above sea surface is about 0.071—0.077(once in 13—14 years).