极端风况下风电场弹性量化评估方法

Quantitative Assessment Method of Wind Farm Resilience Under Extreme Wind Conditions

在构建以新能源为主的新型电力系统大背景下,针对极端条件下风电场弹性评估问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的极端风况下风电场弹性量化评估方法。在阐明风电场弹性概念的基础上,基于多阶段弹性多边形提出了风电场弹性量化与评估指标,并通过对极端风况事件和风电场状态建模提出了各部件失效判定方法,通过完善降级与恢复阶段模型提出了基于顺序蒙特卡洛模拟的风电场弹性评估方法。最后,在算例中评估了4种类型风电场基础设施与运营弹性,并通过分析设备物理强度与冗余性能等因素对弹性的影响规律,验证了所提出方法的有效性。

In the context of building a new power system with new energy as the mainstay,aiming at the problem of wind farm resilience assessment under extreme conditions,a quantitative evaluation method of wind farm resilience under extreme wind conditions based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed.On the basis of clarifying the concept of wind farm resilience,based on multi-stage elastic polygons,the wind farm resilience quantification and evaluation index is proposed,and the method for determining the failure of each component of the wind farm is proposed by modeling the extreme wind events and wind farm states.The wind farm resilience assessment method based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is proposed by supplementing the degradation and restoration stage model.Finally,a example is used to evaluate four types of wind farm infrastructure and operational resilience,and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by analyzing the influence of physical strength and redundant equipment performance on the resilience.