公众对天气预报产品的认知偏差及对策研究

Research on the Public Awareness Bias Towards Weather Forecast Products and Its Countermeasures

随着气象科技的飞速发展,天气预报的准确率不断提高,但由于气象专业预报与公众心目中的预报存在认知上的差异,导致公众认为天气预报准确率不高,天气预报产品的质量较差,从而影响和误导了公众对天气预报产品的使用和决策。文章从天气预报产品的时间、空间、降雨强度等方面出发,分析了与公众心目中认知的偏差,提出了消除偏差的对策建议,可搭建起公众和气象部门有效交流使用天气预报产品的“桥梁”,对公众更好地利用天气预报产品合理安排生产、生活及防御气象灾害具有参考价值。

With the rapid development of meteorological science and technology,the accuracy of weather forecast continues to improve.However,due to the cognitive difference between the professional weather forecast and the forecast in the public’s mind,the public believes that the accuracy of weather forecast is not high,and the quality of weather forecast products is poor,which affects and misleads the public’s use and decision-making of weather forecast products.From the aspects of time,space and rainfall intensity of weather forecast products,this paper analyzes the deviation from the public’s perception,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to eliminate the deviation.The results can build a“bridge”between the public and meteorological departments to effectively communicate and use weather forecast products,which has reference value for the public to make better use of weather forecast products,reasonably arrange production,life and prevent meteorological disasters.