社会监督和政府监管对城市地下管线安全影响研究——来自地下管线安全事故微观数据

Empirical Research on the Impact of Social Supervision and Government Regulation on the Safety of Underground Pipelines in China’s Cities:Microscopic Data Evidence from Underground Pipeline Accidents

城市地下管线安全成为决定城市能否高质量发展的关键因素,备受政府和学界关注,但社会监督和政府监管能否提升城市地下管线安全仍是亟须研究的重要话题。文章利用全国各省市2018年4月—2020年9月的月度微观数据和百度搜索指数等数据,采取有序Probit模型分析社会监督和政府监管对中国城市地下管线安全的影响。研究发现:社会监督对地下管线安全作用主要体现在低风险等级领域,政府监管能够有效解决社会监督的中高风险等级的效果不足问题。同时,政府监管手段和强度应有的放矢,将高强度政府监管资源重点分配在高风险地区,不能进行简单“平均化”处理,否则将削弱政府监管效果。通过异质性分析,建议政府应该以空间分布和事故类型实施分类监管策略,避免超前投入大量监管资源,造成资源浪费。

The safety of urban underground pipelines has become a key determining factor of a city’s high-quality development,which has attracted the attention of the government and academia.However,whether social supervision and government supervision can improve the safety of urban underground pipelines is still an important research topic.Using the monthly micro data from April2018 to September 2020 and Baidu search index data of provinces and cities across the country,this paper adopts the ordered Probit model to analyze the impact of social supervision and government supervision on the safety of urban underground pipelines in China.It is found that the role of social supervision on underground pipeline safety is mainly reflected in the field of low-risk level,and government supervision can effectively make up for the insufficient effect of medium and high-risk level of social supervision.At the same time,the means and intensity of government supervision should be targeted.The high-intensity government supervision resources are mainly allocated to high-risk areas,which cannot be simply"averaged",or it may weaken the effect of government supervision.Through the heterogeneity analysis,we suggest that the government should implement the classified supervision strategy based on the spatial distribution and types of accidents,so as to avoid investing a lot of supervision resources in advance,resulting in a waste of resources.