全球食物供给非均衡性演变及贸易影响

Inequality of global food supply and the impact of trade

降低食物供给的非均衡性是实现“零饥饿”的重要途径。论文在分析1986—2018年全球食物生产时空演变特征的基础上,基于洛伦兹曲线和锡尔系数,对全球与区域食物生产非均衡性及贸易影响进行了测度。结果表明:(1)1986—2018年,全球各类食物产量均呈增加趋势,产出结构发生了显著变化,谷物在植物性食物中的比重减小,油料、蔬菜和水果所占比重增加。不同区域和国家食物营养来源具有显著差异,且尺度越小,差异越大。(2)谷物、糖料和水果生产的集中程度相对较低,蔬菜、油料、薯类、水产品生产集中程度较高。豆类、蔬菜、油料、糖料和嗜好类人均产量非均衡性呈增加趋势,薯类、水果、畜禽类和水产品的人均产量非均衡性呈降低趋势。人均热量产出非均衡较低,脂肪和蛋白质产出的非均衡性较高。(3)贸易对全球人均食物及营养供给的非均衡性具有显著的降低作用,且其影响程度逐年增加。贸易对糖类、油料和嗜好类非均衡性降低作用最显著,对脂肪供给非均衡性的降低作用较大。制定以营养为导向的食物生产和贸易政策,对提升食物供给均衡性具有重要意义。

Reducing the inequality of food supply is an important way to achieve the goal of"zero hunger".This study examined the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of global food production from 1986 to 2018 based on the Lorentz curve and Theil coefficient,and measured the global and regional food production inequality and the impact of trade.The results show that:1)The production of all categories of food showed an increasing trend,and the output structure has changed significantly.The proportion of cereals in total food production has decreased,while the proportion of oils,vegetables,and fruits has increased.There were significant differences in food nutrition sources among different regions and countries,and the largest variance was observed at the country level.2)The concentration degree of grain,sugar,and fruit production was relatively low,while vegetables,oil crops,roots and tubers,and aquatic product production was relatively concentrated in a few countries.The inequality of beans,vegetables,oil crops,sugars,and stimulants production per capita showed an increasing trend,while roots and tubers,fruits,livestock,and aquatic products production per capita showed a decreasing trend.The inequality of caloric output per capita was lower than that of fat and protein.3)Trade played a significant role in reducing the inequality of global food supply,especially for sugars,oil crops,and stimulants,and the impact of trade is intensifying gradually.Thus,the formulation of nutritionoriented food production and trade policies is of great significance for improving the equality of food supply.