基于技术债务角度的企业IT项目管理演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Enterprise IT Project Management from the Perspective of Technical Debt

随着信息技术的发展,企业IT项目的复杂程度不断提升。尽管项目管理者不断强调持续关注技术卓越和良好设计以增强灵活性,但项目实践中为了尽快交付成果而导致技术债务不断累积的现象仍然层出不穷,如何权衡技术债务带来的战略优势和客户收益损失,成为项目管理科学决策的重要问题。本文基于技术债务和“情境—应对”模式,分别建立不考虑项目成果接受者收益的演化博弈模型和考虑项目成果接受者收益的演化博弈模型,探究项目实施者和项目成果接受者在不同技术债务情境和不同应对策略下的演化均衡策略,并通过MATLAB进行仿真分析,得出结论和提出建议。从短期发展来看,企业可以通过战略性地产生技术债务获得竞争优势,但严重技术债务可能会导致系统不可维护性与不可演化性,产生巨大的偿还成本,企业应当根据技术债务演化的不同阶段选择合适的引导方案。从长期发展来看,严重的技术债务情境对于项目成果接受者是严格下策,企业应该尽可能避免项目陷入严重的技术债务以维护客户收益最大化,实现可持续共赢发展。

With the development of technology,enterprise IT projects are becoming increasingly complex.Although project managers strongly recommend enhancing flexibility by focusing on technological excellence and good design,practitioners are often seen to build up technical debt in order to deliver the project sooner.Therefore,it is important for project managers to find how to balance the strategic advantages and the benefit loss of recipients brought by technical debt.Based on the theory of technical debt and scenario-response model,two evolutionary game models are established with one taking recipients’benefits into consideration and the other not.The evolutionary equilibrium strategies of project implementers and recipients are explored and simulated by MATLAB under different technical debt scenarios and different coping strategies,after which conclusions and suggestions are put forward.In the short term,enterprises can gain competitive advantages by strategically generating technical debt.However,serious technology debt may lead to non-maintainability and non-resolvability of the system,resulting in huge repayment costs.Enterprises should choose appropriate guidance schemes according to different stages of technical debt evolution.In the long run,serious technical debt scenario is a strict poor policy for the project recipients.Enterprises should avoid the serious technical debt in order to maximize customer revenues and achieve sustainable win-win development.