基于Multi-Agent系统模型的生鲜农产品有效供给对策研究

Research on Effective Supply of Fresh Agricultural Products Based on Multi-agent System Mode

现阶段我国生鲜农产品供需不匹配的问题严重影响了经济社会的均衡稳定发展,提高生鲜农产品的有效供给成为亟需达成的目标。本文提炼主体属性、行为决策范式与交互规则,建立生鲜农产品供需系统的Multi-Agent模型,并通过仿真实验研究不同情境下微观供给主体的行为变化,探索有效供给的驱动方案,以期更好地促进我国生鲜农产品供给的健康发展。研究结果表明:供给主体是有效供给行为的执行者,信息传递的有效性和及时性是保障有效供给的基础与前提,而利益诱导则是引导供给主体扩大有效供给的关键。只有在高效信息传递的基础上根据预期需求实时调整价格补贴,才能扩大生鲜农产品的有效供给。

At present,the mismatch between supply and demand of fresh agricultural products in China has seriously affected the balanced and stable development of economy and society.By abstracting the subject attribute,behavior decision-making paradigm and interaction rules,this paper establishes a multi-agent model of fresh agricultural products supply and demand system to study the benefit-driven change of micro supply subject behaviors through simulation experiment and explore a solution to effective supply in the hope of better promoting the healthy development of fresh agricultural products supply in China.The results show that the supply subject is the executor of the effective supply behavior,the effectiveness and timeliness of information transmission is the basis and premise of effective supply,and the benefit induction is the key for the supply subject to expand effective supply.Only on the basis of efficient information transmission and real-time adjustment of price subsidies according to expected demand can we expand the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.